Techno-Economic Assessment of Deep Electrification of Passenger Vehicles in India

In India, there is growing interest among policymakers, planners, and regulators for aggressive electrification of passenger vehicles. This study assesses the impact on consumers, utilities, emissions, oil imports, and electric grid in 2030 if battery electric vehicles (BEVs) fully replace the conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in all new passenger vehicle sales (cars and two-wheelers) by 2030. The study is conducted by simulating BEV driving and charging behavior using an agent based mobility model, PEVI, and by simulating economic dispatch of the power system using an industry standard production cost model, PLEXOS. Some of the main findings from the study are as follows:

1. Currently, personal BEVs have a payback period of about 6-7 years (without subsidy); in future, BEV costs are expected to drop rapidly and their cost-effectiveness would only improve.
2. BEV charging will only add 6% to the projected peak load by 2030, even with aggressive penetration scenarios.
3. By 2030, the BEV charging could result in ~Rs 70,000 Cr/yr ($11 billion/yr) of additional revenue for the financially distressed distribution utilities, which could reduce their financial deficit by 50%.
4. BEVs can offer a reduction of nearly 20-60% in per kilometer CO₂ emissions relative to the ICE vehicles, even if the electric grid continues to be coal heavy. By 2050, they can reduce CO₂ emissions by ~600 million tons/yr (8% of total).
5. BEVs can reduce India’s crude oil import bill by $14 billion/yr in 2030 and by $100 billion/yr in 2050.
6. With smart charging, BEVs can enable cost-effective grid integration of renewable energy by avoiding curtailment and providing ramping support.